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βοΈSWC Forecast CenterβοΈSWC Forecast Centerβ Welcome to Winter 2022!

National Hurricane Center: Atlantic Basin Activity
π An increase in tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin could help ring in a Fall chill across parts of the eastern United States by the middle of October. Β
The Atlantic and Pacific Basins are full of life with tropical activity! Numerous storms in both basins will ultimately control the sensible weather over North America as we head into October.
I have been on record stating that around October 12, we will reach the end game of any βsummer-likeβ weather for the Midwest and Ohio Valley as a tropical entity merges with a deep, mid latitude trough on or near the East Coast of the United States. This wave is emerging off of Africa now and can be seen as the far right X in the graphic above. With today being September 27th, add about 15 days from now, we sit at October 12th. I am well aware that this may be completely incorrect as it is tough to pin down shortwave energy this far out, but on the otherhand, this is what makes weather prediction fun! Now judging by the current pattern, and considering what is happening in the Pacific Ocean, I believe I am on the right track.
I have been on record stating that around October 12, we will reach the end game of any βsummer-likeβ weather for the Midwest and Ohio Valley as a tropical entity merges with a deep, mid latitude trough on or near the East Coast of the United States. This wave is emerging off of Africa now and can be seen as the far right X in the graphic above. With today being September 27th, add about 15 days from now, we sit at October 12th. I am well aware that this may be completely incorrect as it is tough to pin down shortwave energy this far out, but on the otherhand, this is what makes weather prediction fun! Now judging by the current pattern, and considering what is happening in the Pacific Ocean, I believe I am on the right track.

Typhoon Mindulle is getting entrained into the Polar Westerlies and will likely send down a sizable trough by the beginning of next week. This should lead to a cool shot in the west and downstream amplification for the central and eastern United States. Much like the Atlantic, the Pacific also has a wave cooking behind Typhoon Mindulle. Like its predecessor, this wave will get pulled into the Polar Westerlies and race towards the Gulf of Alaska about 5 days from now, leading to even greater amplification. We should see this particular wave evolve between October 8-10.
Using general knowledge that this injection of energy will bring, it would bring a low into the United States around October 10, and deepen as it heads eastward. At the same time, this presumed Tropical wave near Africa will draw closer to the eastern seaboard of the United States. The two systems could interact with each other, leading to a solid chance of meaningful amplification in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, with a more pronounced and powerful cold shot. Thus my reasoning for and end to βsummer likeβ weather and the potential for first frosts and freezes for some of the areas mentioned above.Β
Letβs see how this all comes together!
β Forecast Provided By: Meteorologist Joshua Ketchen
Using general knowledge that this injection of energy will bring, it would bring a low into the United States around October 10, and deepen as it heads eastward. At the same time, this presumed Tropical wave near Africa will draw closer to the eastern seaboard of the United States. The two systems could interact with each other, leading to a solid chance of meaningful amplification in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, with a more pronounced and powerful cold shot. Thus my reasoning for and end to βsummer likeβ weather and the potential for first frosts and freezes for some of the areas mentioned above.Β
Letβs see how this all comes together!
β Forecast Provided By: Meteorologist Joshua Ketchen
- π‘ Winter Snowfall Forecast
Show and hide layers π‘ The 2020/21 SWC Winter Snowfall Forecast illuminates a wintry picture over a large portion of America. A La Nina favored large-scale pattern with upper-level ridging in the west and troughing in the east was considered in developing this forecast. Other influences, from the Arctic to the North Atlantic, could play a major role on how storm systems progress across the country.
- Latest SWC Forecasts
- βοΈ Winter’s Last Stand for the Ohio Valley with Heavy Snow possible Friday night
- β οΈβοΈ Winter Storm Update Plus Expected Snow & Ice Totals across the Ohio Valley Region
- βπ§βοΈ Powerhouse Winter Storm to slam the Ohio Valley with Ice and Heavy Snow starting on Wednesday night through Friday
- βπ§ Potentially Dangerous Winter Storm to bring significant winter impacts to the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southern Plains this week!
- β See how much snow will fall across the eastern third of the Ohio Valley Sunday night/Monday morning
- β A Massive Winter Storm is expected to produce widespread accumulating SNOW across multiple regions this weekend
- β Winter to visit the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this week with Accumulating Snow and Cold
- π₯Ά Major Cold Outbreak Likely next week with “First Flakes” possible in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast!
Latest SWC Featuresβ Catch up on the most recent weather forecasts from SWC Forecasters!
β Track severe weather hazards day or night with our interactive maps!
β Visit our social media outlets for more fresh weather content!
β Sign-Up for a storm chasing vacation with our veteran Storm Chasers and friendly Tour Guides!
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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- β οΈ U.S Advisory Layers
SWC Weather Advisory Layers β οΈ Click on real-time watch, warning, and advisory polygons for critical weather information. Allow the SWC location feature to plot your location on the map. Expand the map and visit all SWC Weather Layers.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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- π§ As Winter Weather impacts become more frequent across America, it's important to brush up on the basics. Let's review how you can prepare yourself and your family for the worst of Old Man Winter!π¦ Pack an Emergency Supply Kit.
π± Charge all Communication devices.
π Winterize all family vehicles.
π Get up-to-date weather reports.
π Share your travel plans with others.
π£ Monitor road conditions.
- Latest SWC Forecasts
- βοΈ Winter’s Last Stand for the Ohio Valley with Heavy Snow possible Friday night
- β οΈβοΈ Winter Storm Update Plus Expected Snow & Ice Totals across the Ohio Valley Region
- βπ§βοΈ Powerhouse Winter Storm to slam the Ohio Valley with Ice and Heavy Snow starting on Wednesday night through Friday
- βπ§ Potentially Dangerous Winter Storm to bring significant winter impacts to the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southern Plains this week!
- β See how much snow will fall across the eastern third of the Ohio Valley Sunday night/Monday morning
- β A Massive Winter Storm is expected to produce widespread accumulating SNOW across multiple regions this weekend
- β Winter to visit the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this week with Accumulating Snow and Cold
- π₯Ά Major Cold Outbreak Likely next week with “First Flakes” possible in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast!
Latest SWC Featuresβ Catch up on the most recent weather forecasts from SWC Forecasters!
β Track severe weather hazards day or night with our interactive maps!
β Visit our social media outlets for more fresh weather content!
β Join SWC Veteran Storm Chasers in Spring 2021 as we track down the most intense Supercells and Tornadoes found in the world!
- π‘ View the latest Goes-16 Visible Satellite image of the United States. This image will update every 5 minutes.
- π₯ As La Nina continues to control the overall pattern across the Western U.S., dry conditions are prevailing across Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. These conditions are forecasted to continue through Winter 2020/21.
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