CFS weeklies, pictured above, coupled with weakening La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific, as well as negative phase Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, all show a strong signal for below normal temperatures throughout the month of February from the upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley, and then eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. The pattern is likely to begin at the start of the second week of the month. Individual storms are too difficult to predict this far in advance, but the pattern does appear rather favorable for colder airmass intrusion than we experienced in January.

When looking into the medium and long range for winter storm potential, it's important to find areas where above normal precipitation intersect or directly parallel areas of below normal temperatures. In the image above, we can see that above normal precipitation during the 3rd week of the month overlaps a fairly aggressive area of cold temperature departures. Where these areas meet is typically where you will find the most intense winter weather. Late in the first week of February, The European model(ECMWF) develops a cross-polar flow deep into the central United States, and this could also lead to an increase in winter storm potential.

❄ Forecast Provided By: Extreme Storm Chaser Rich Gross