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βοΈSWC Forecast CenterβοΈSWC Forecast Centerβ Welcome to Winter 2022!

Monday January 31, 2022 7:22pm EST
The entire Ohio Valley region should prepare for significant Winter impacts beginning on Wednesday evening, including Heavy Freezing Rain, Sleet, and Heavy Snow accumulation over 12"

18Z GFS Total Snow Accumulation using the Kuchera method of calculation. This weeds out some of the sleet/freezing rain.

18z GFS Total Freezing Rain accretion. Surface Temps below 32F and Mid-Level Temps above 32F.
Prepare for a long duration winter precipitation event that will transition from rain on Wednesday to Ice and Snow on Thursday, starting in Central Indiana and progressing to the SE through the daytime hours, eventually reaching the Ohio River by afternoon or evening. While we continue to calculate potential amounts for given areas, we will monitor the latest trends over the next 24 hours and produce a forecast tomorrow evening with specific details regarding this dangerous Winter Storm!
β Forecaster: Rich Gross
Previous Discussion:
So what is going to happen?Β As the deep, low pressure exits eastern Canada on Sunday, a broad, southerly flow will develop across the Plains and East. A rapid warm up will occur rooting out the Arctic air.
The major problem; however, is the mean flow in the mid and upper levels is that of bitter, Arctic air so a very intense airmass battle will begin to take shape by the middle of the week, breeding a very intense low pressure across the southern Plains.
As Arctic air begins to move southeast and bumps up against the rapid warm surge, heavy precipitation and wind will break out. I believe two waves will accompany this cold front and full latitude trough, giving rise to a myriad of weather issues.
The first wave with the cold front will deliver the shot of warmer temperatures and modest rainfall. As the cold air begins to overtake the warm air, I think a second wave will develop along the Gulf Coast somewhere between Houston and New Orleans on Wednesday. It is this wave that can spell all kinds of trouble.
As the Arctic air whips down from Canada and collides with the trough, moisture being lifted over this boundary will lead to a large shield of heavy precipitation to break out. This is where track of the low becomes vital.
Right now, the track appears to be from around Houston into Mississippi/Alabama up into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. The questions of how strong the low will be, where the placement of the low will set up, and the other atmospheric effects will be the determining factor between flooding rain, significant icing, and possibly record level snowfall, not to mention wind.
Specifics are not yet attainable, but the probability of a significant, potentially major, winter storm is high. Being in the Ohio Valley, we will once again lie right in the dissection path. Places South and East could experience flooding rainfall and even severe thunderstorms. The battle zone between low level warmth and growing Arctic air rushing in could see significant icing. Places firmly in the cold air could see significant snowfall that could reach the foot criteria. A distance of 50 miles could be the difference between a ton of wet, a ton of white, and a ton of ice.
We will be glued to this storm and be updating with the latest information to keep you aware of the situation.
βοΈ Meteorologist Josh Ketchen
β Forecaster: Rich Gross
Previous Discussion:
So what is going to happen?Β As the deep, low pressure exits eastern Canada on Sunday, a broad, southerly flow will develop across the Plains and East. A rapid warm up will occur rooting out the Arctic air.
The major problem; however, is the mean flow in the mid and upper levels is that of bitter, Arctic air so a very intense airmass battle will begin to take shape by the middle of the week, breeding a very intense low pressure across the southern Plains.
As Arctic air begins to move southeast and bumps up against the rapid warm surge, heavy precipitation and wind will break out. I believe two waves will accompany this cold front and full latitude trough, giving rise to a myriad of weather issues.
The first wave with the cold front will deliver the shot of warmer temperatures and modest rainfall. As the cold air begins to overtake the warm air, I think a second wave will develop along the Gulf Coast somewhere between Houston and New Orleans on Wednesday. It is this wave that can spell all kinds of trouble.
As the Arctic air whips down from Canada and collides with the trough, moisture being lifted over this boundary will lead to a large shield of heavy precipitation to break out. This is where track of the low becomes vital.
Right now, the track appears to be from around Houston into Mississippi/Alabama up into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. The questions of how strong the low will be, where the placement of the low will set up, and the other atmospheric effects will be the determining factor between flooding rain, significant icing, and possibly record level snowfall, not to mention wind.
Specifics are not yet attainable, but the probability of a significant, potentially major, winter storm is high. Being in the Ohio Valley, we will once again lie right in the dissection path. Places South and East could experience flooding rainfall and even severe thunderstorms. The battle zone between low level warmth and growing Arctic air rushing in could see significant icing. Places firmly in the cold air could see significant snowfall that could reach the foot criteria. A distance of 50 miles could be the difference between a ton of wet, a ton of white, and a ton of ice.
We will be glued to this storm and be updating with the latest information to keep you aware of the situation.
βοΈ Meteorologist Josh Ketchen
- Latest SWC Forecasts
- βοΈ Winter’s Last Stand for the Ohio Valley with Heavy Snow possible Friday night
- β οΈβοΈ Winter Storm Update Plus Expected Snow & Ice Totals across the Ohio Valley Region
- βπ§βοΈ Powerhouse Winter Storm to slam the Ohio Valley with Ice and Heavy Snow starting on Wednesday night through Friday
- βπ§ Potentially Dangerous Winter Storm to bring significant winter impacts to the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southern Plains this week!
- β See how much snow will fall across the eastern third of the Ohio Valley Sunday night/Monday morning
- β A Massive Winter Storm is expected to produce widespread accumulating SNOW across multiple regions this weekend
- β Winter to visit the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this week with Accumulating Snow and Cold
- π₯Ά Major Cold Outbreak Likely next week with “First Flakes” possible in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast!
Latest SWC Featuresβ Catch up on the most recent weather forecasts from SWC Forecasters!
β Track severe weather hazards day or night with our interactive maps!
β Visit our social media outlets for more fresh weather content!
β Sign-Up for a storm chasing vacation with our veteran Storm Chasers and friendly Tour Guides!
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
-
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
-
π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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- π§ As Winter Weather impacts become more frequent across America, it's important to brush up on the basics. Let's review how you can prepare yourself and your family for the worst of Old Man Winter!π¦ Pack an Emergency Supply Kit.
π± Charge all Communication devices.
π Winterize all family vehicles.
π Get up-to-date weather reports.
π Share your travel plans with others.
π£ Monitor road conditions.
- Latest SWC Forecasts
- βοΈ Winter’s Last Stand for the Ohio Valley with Heavy Snow possible Friday night
- β οΈβοΈ Winter Storm Update Plus Expected Snow & Ice Totals across the Ohio Valley Region
- βπ§βοΈ Powerhouse Winter Storm to slam the Ohio Valley with Ice and Heavy Snow starting on Wednesday night through Friday
- βπ§ Potentially Dangerous Winter Storm to bring significant winter impacts to the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southern Plains this week!
- β See how much snow will fall across the eastern third of the Ohio Valley Sunday night/Monday morning
- β A Massive Winter Storm is expected to produce widespread accumulating SNOW across multiple regions this weekend
- β Winter to visit the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this week with Accumulating Snow and Cold
- π₯Ά Major Cold Outbreak Likely next week with “First Flakes” possible in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast!
Latest SWC Featuresβ Catch up on the most recent weather forecasts from SWC Forecasters!
β Track severe weather hazards day or night with our interactive maps!
β Visit our social media outlets for more fresh weather content!
β Join SWC Veteran Storm Chasers in Spring 2021 as we track down the most intense Supercells and Tornadoes found in the world!
- π‘ View the latest Goes-16 Visible Satellite image of the United States. This image will update every 5 minutes.
- π₯ As La Nina continues to control the overall pattern across the Western U.S., dry conditions are prevailing across Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. These conditions are forecasted to continue through Winter 2020/21.
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