⛈ A compact and vigorous upper level low pressure system is expected to spawn an outbreak of severe thunderstorms on Sunday across the Missouri Ozarks, and portions of the Lower Midwest. All Severe Hazards are likely, which includes Tornadoes, Large Hail, and Damaging Wind.

Severe Thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage by late afternoon, especially across Central and Northern Missouri. These storms have to potential to produce significant impacts. Additional storms are expected to form in an arc from western Illinois into extreme western Indiana by evening, and may also be severe with only isolated impacts.

🌪 The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 10% Significant Tornado Risk from Joplin to St. Louis, Missouri for Sunday. In these areas, 1 or 2 supercells and/or multi-storm clusters could produce violent tornadoes. Elsewhere, any tornadoes that do form should remain weak and short-lived.

Conditions are favorable for tornadoes due in part to unseasonably warm air and above normal moisture content, considering the time of year. Additionally, deep layer shear in advance of an upper level cyclone will promote mesocyclones, which can produce significant tornadoes.

Additional severe weather impacts such as large hail and damaging wind are also expected within the strongest storms. Damaging wind will become the primary threat after dusk as storms race eastward into Illinois and parts of the western Ohio Valley. Anyone traveling across Interstates 70 and 44 should monitor the progress of Sunday's storm activity.

More severe weather is expected to take shape across the same areas on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a large Fall cyclone digs southeastward from the northern Rockies. We are tracking the potential for all severe weather hazards with this activity as well.

☀️ This forecast was prepared by the SWC Forecast Team.