ECMWF Mid-level temperatures ending October 16, 2021
Several waves of upper level energy will spin across the Western United States beginning late next week, with Severe T-Storms expected across the Plains and Midwest, and SNOW in the Rockies...
Not much talk is going on about any cool air for the majority of the eastern United States.  We continue to be the “outcast” because all you hear is warmth and more warmth and more warmth.  Here, we continue to believe in the pattern change which would start around October 12 and end the summer pattern.

Next week, at this time, a vigorous low pressure will be centered over the High Plains. This will bring a likelihood of severe thunderstorms to the western Plains and panhandle regions of Oklahoma and Texas. At the same time, cold air will be drawing in from the northwest creating an intense area of snow across Colorado, Wyoming, far western Nebraska up to parts of the Black Hills. More or less, a classic Autumnal storm between waning Summer and the coming Winter.

GFS 500mb Height Anomaly for October 21, 2021
A key feature that is vital for areas east of the Mississippi is blocking.  Models show it and then take it away. However, if one has been paying attention to models over the last month, this blocking feature over north east Canada and Greenland has had some staying power. While this does not mean snow and very cold weather right now, this semi-permanent feature could answer a lot of winter questions as we move towards December.

The key is that models are catching on as we draw close. This could be another case where staring at models, like so many of us do, will crash and burn because they will be all over the place until we close to within 4-5 days of a particular event. Case in point, currently, as models seem to recognize blocking around Greenland and points just west leading to colder readings and wetter periods than what you may be hearing.

Fun to see how things play out, regardless.

⭐ Forecast Provided By: Meteorologist Joshua Ketchen

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