🌤 After carefully reviewing important large-scale climate features, a winter outlook for 2021-2022 for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast can be comprised!  We predict that the most populated region of the United States is in for a wild roller-coaster winter, with wild swings in temperatures and the potential for a few significant Winter Storms!  

🌨 In the image above, you can review our expected snowfall departures for the Northeast region. Below, see how much snow the Mid-Atlantic could reasonably expect this Winter.

🏝 As Atlantic Ocean waters remain warm, the threat for significant coastal storms are higher than normal. However, with this warmth, comes a general conclusion of “more wet than white” for immediate coastal areas along and east of Interstate 95. The normal case of heavy snow in the mountains and the interior Northeast, and heavy rain and coastal flooding for Eastern areas seems like a general theme this winter season.

✔ There is some positive news, though, if you want snow along the coast. Enough confidence exists that one or two coastal lows can track far enough East to usher cold air all the way to the shoreline to give places like New York, Newark, Boston, and Philadelphia a meaningful snowstorm this winter.

🌞 Now, let’s outline the basics. In regard to temperatures, expect seasonal averages to be the end result. This will not come by way of mundane weather, but by potent, Mid-latitude cyclones. Do not be surprised if places in the far southern region soar to the 70s a few times this winter, while interior areas shiver in the 20s at the same time.

🥶 With that being said, meaningful cold air will visit, likely in fleeting fashion, to keep temperatures close to seasonal norms. The chance for above normal temperatures is likely for the south, while the opportunity for slightly below exists for northern and western areas.

🌧 The precipitation outlook should closely resemble the temperature forecast. Strong high pressure could keep precipitation limited for southern areas that come under the influence of subtle ridging starting in the eastern Caribbean and spreading into the Southeast and Carolinas. Further to the north, the influence of the mean jet stream overhead will spark a concentrated battle between Arctic/Polar air and Sub-Tropical moisture. Ample precipitation is possible at times during this Winter season.

❄ What most probably want to know is, “Is it going to snow in my hometown?”  We think, YES!  Why?  With an active subtropical jet, warm waters, and a fairly potent northern jet, there is a greater than average chance 2 to 3 Nor’easters. We do not see the nickel and dime storms that add up totals slowly over time, but we do see the threat for a few hefty storms that could produce high amounts of snow in a short time.

⛄ This is how most areas should arrive at near normal snowfall totals for the winter. Interior regions, as usual, will end above normal as cold air is expected to hang around these areas the longest. So while it might not be “Winter” for long periods of time, when it is, most areas will “Cash in!".

⚠️ Stay tuned to the SWC Forecast Center and track Winter Storms with us all season long!

☀️ This Winter Outlook has been provided by the SWC Forecast Team.