CFS/Tropical Tidbits
January 27, 2021
🥶 Bitter Cross Polar Flow and weak La Nina conditions could lead to a potentially cold and snowy February from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region...
CFS weeklies, pictured above, coupled with weakening La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific, as well as negative phase Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, all show a strong signal for below normal temperatures throughout the month of February from the upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley, and then eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. The pattern is likely to begin at the start of the second week of the month. Individual storms are too difficult to predict this far in advance, but the pattern does appear rather favorable for colder airmass intrusion than we experienced in January.

January 27, 2021
When looking into the medium and long range for winter storm potential, it's important to find areas where above normal precipitation intersect or directly parallel areas of below normal temperatures. In the image above, we can see that above normal precipitation during the 3rd week of the month overlaps a fairly aggressive area of cold temperature departures. Where these areas meet is typically where you will find the most intense winter weather. Late in the first week of February, The European model(ECMWF) develops a cross-polar flow deep into the central United States, and this could also lead to an increase in winter storm potential.

❄ Forecast Provided By: Extreme Storm Chaser Rich Gross

  • ☃️ The SWC Winter Forecast has been released for the 2021-22 Season. Our forecasters break down the details of how the upcoming Winter will play out across the United States.
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  • 🔥 As La Nina continues to control the overall pattern across the Western U.S., dry conditions are prevailing across Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. These conditions are forecasted to continue through Winter 2020/21.