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βWinter Weather CenterβSWC Forecast CenterWelcome to SWC Forecast Center

ECMWF Temperature Departure December 2021
β Weather models indicate a fast start to Winter in December as high pressure over the North Pole could force Arctic air into the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions...
Who likes Winter?Β Who wants an early start to winter?Β This has been something that I have been mulling over in my head since late Spring. All you heard about was relentless, record heat and drought. The key I was focusing in on was the atypical high pressures centered over the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The question I asked myself, βIf this holds and strengthens through the summer and fall, could we be setting up for a cold/stormy winter?β
While it is still early in the Autumn season, signs continue to lend themselves to a cold and stormy winter regime as we head into December. Long range Blocking signatures continue to show up on many favored climate models runs, in the favored locations. Those areas are in northern Siberia, northern Alaska, atop the North Pole, and Greenland. What does this mean for the United States?
This signature implies lower heights/lower pressures across lower latitudes. Strong Sudden Stratospheric Warming would take place at high latitudes, forcing the cold, Arctic air to find an escape route. This obviously means colder air for the lower 48 states. Want snow?
Glad you asked. With a second year La NiΓ±a, that is not out of control, should prevent mild air from flooding into the country. Instead, high pressure should stay in firm control in the western Pacific forcing the sub tropical jet to take a path from east of Hawaii, through Mexico, into the Gulf and then up near or just off the East Coast of the United States. In return, the polar and Arctic jets will have a tendency to sag south across the northern half to two/thirds of the country. This sets up the potential for cold, deepening storms for the eastern half of the United States. So the threat for cold precipitation storms could be higher then average.
Why the sense of βwinter excitementβ?Β The latest Euro monthlies have come in and they paint a rather glorious picture for winter weather lovers! Strong, concentrated blocking at the Pole with deep, cold pools beneath the blocking flooding the majority of the country with cold air. When you add in an active jet stream, winter could get going fast.
Again, we still need more time to hone in on the specifics, but if you like cold and snowy weather for winter, you cannot ask for a better set up then what the European model shows. This might be one the most impressive maps I have seen in September for many years, and I have been studying weather for nearly 30 years. STAY TUNED!!
Β βοΈ Forecast Provided By: Meteorologist Josh Ketchen
This signature implies lower heights/lower pressures across lower latitudes. Strong Sudden Stratospheric Warming would take place at high latitudes, forcing the cold, Arctic air to find an escape route. This obviously means colder air for the lower 48 states. Want snow?
Glad you asked. With a second year La NiΓ±a, that is not out of control, should prevent mild air from flooding into the country. Instead, high pressure should stay in firm control in the western Pacific forcing the sub tropical jet to take a path from east of Hawaii, through Mexico, into the Gulf and then up near or just off the East Coast of the United States. In return, the polar and Arctic jets will have a tendency to sag south across the northern half to two/thirds of the country. This sets up the potential for cold, deepening storms for the eastern half of the United States. So the threat for cold precipitation storms could be higher then average.
Why the sense of βwinter excitementβ?Β The latest Euro monthlies have come in and they paint a rather glorious picture for winter weather lovers! Strong, concentrated blocking at the Pole with deep, cold pools beneath the blocking flooding the majority of the country with cold air. When you add in an active jet stream, winter could get going fast.
Again, we still need more time to hone in on the specifics, but if you like cold and snowy weather for winter, you cannot ask for a better set up then what the European model shows. This might be one the most impressive maps I have seen in September for many years, and I have been studying weather for nearly 30 years. STAY TUNED!!
Β βοΈ Forecast Provided By: Meteorologist Josh Ketchen
- π‘ Winter Snowfall Forecast
Show and hide layers π‘ The 2020/21 SWC Winter Snowfall Forecast illuminates a wintry picture over a large portion of America. A La Nina favored large-scale pattern with upper-level ridging in the west and troughing in the east was considered in developing this forecast. Other influences, from the Arctic to the North Atlantic, could play a major role on how storm systems progress across the country.
- Latest SWC Forecasts
- βοΈ Winter’s Last Stand for the Ohio Valley with Heavy Snow possible Friday night
- β οΈβοΈ Winter Storm Update Plus Expected Snow & Ice Totals across the Ohio Valley Region
- βπ§βοΈ Powerhouse Winter Storm to slam the Ohio Valley with Ice and Heavy Snow starting on Wednesday night through Friday
- βπ§ Potentially Dangerous Winter Storm to bring significant winter impacts to the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southern Plains this week!
- β See how much snow will fall across the eastern third of the Ohio Valley Sunday night/Monday morning
- β A Massive Winter Storm is expected to produce widespread accumulating SNOW across multiple regions this weekend
- β Winter to visit the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this week with Accumulating Snow and Cold
- π₯Ά Major Cold Outbreak Likely next week with “First Flakes” possible in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast!
Latest SWC Featuresβ Catch up on the most recent weather forecasts from SWC Forecasters!
β Track severe weather hazards day or night with our interactive maps!
β Visit our social media outlets for more fresh weather content!
β Sign-Up for a storm chasing vacation with our veteran Storm Chasers and friendly Tour Guides!
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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Do you have a fun weather fact or personal weather story that you would like to share with SWC Forecasters? We would love to hear about it! Send us your story at forecasters@swcforecastcenter.com.
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- β οΈ U.S Advisory Layers
SWC Weather Advisory Layers β οΈ Click on real-time watch, warning, and advisory polygons for critical weather information. Allow the SWC location feature to plot your location on the map. Expand the map and visit all SWC Weather Layers.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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π NOAA/NWS Surface Weather Maps display forecasted cold/warm front postions, precipitation areas, and high/low pressure centers. Forecasts span over 48 to 60 hours.
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- π§ As Winter Weather impacts become more frequent across America, it's important to brush up on the basics. Let's review how you can prepare yourself and your family for the worst of Old Man Winter!π¦ Pack an Emergency Supply Kit.
π± Charge all Communication devices.
π Winterize all family vehicles.
π Get up-to-date weather reports.
π Share your travel plans with others.
π£ Monitor road conditions.
- Latest SWC Forecasts
- βοΈ Winter’s Last Stand for the Ohio Valley with Heavy Snow possible Friday night
- β οΈβοΈ Winter Storm Update Plus Expected Snow & Ice Totals across the Ohio Valley Region
- βπ§βοΈ Powerhouse Winter Storm to slam the Ohio Valley with Ice and Heavy Snow starting on Wednesday night through Friday
- βπ§ Potentially Dangerous Winter Storm to bring significant winter impacts to the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southern Plains this week!
- β See how much snow will fall across the eastern third of the Ohio Valley Sunday night/Monday morning
- β A Massive Winter Storm is expected to produce widespread accumulating SNOW across multiple regions this weekend
- β Winter to visit the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this week with Accumulating Snow and Cold
- π₯Ά Major Cold Outbreak Likely next week with “First Flakes” possible in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast!
Latest SWC Featuresβ Catch up on the most recent weather forecasts from SWC Forecasters!
β Track severe weather hazards day or night with our interactive maps!
β Visit our social media outlets for more fresh weather content!
β Join SWC Veteran Storm Chasers in Spring 2021 as we track down the most intense Supercells and Tornadoes found in the world!
- π‘ View the latest Goes-16 Visible Satellite image of the United States. This image will update every 5 minutes.
- π₯ As La Nina continues to control the overall pattern across the Western U.S., dry conditions are prevailing across Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. These conditions are forecasted to continue through Winter 2020/21.
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