After a record breaking December comprised of above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall for much of the eastern United States, Winter will make a grand entrance this weekend! A multi-region Winter Storm complex will affect the Dakotas starting on Thursday night heading southward into the Missouri Valley on Friday night and Saturday. Snow will crank up in the Tennessee Valley, the southern Appalachain mountains, and the southern half of the Ohio Valley region on Sunday and Sunday night. Snow is expected to also break out across areas of the Northeast/Eastern Great Lakes on Monday with additional snow accumulation.

Let's take a look at the latest operational weather models. You will see that while there are still a number of details to work out with regard to exact track and intensity of surface features, there is increasing confidence with regard to some of the impact areas we expect will receive accumulating snow and some ice this weekend.

The first image(left) is the Global Forecast System which depicts perhaps a larger storm overall and even more snow for some areas of the Missouri Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the Appalachain mountains. The Canadian weather model in the (center) image depicts perhaps a drier storm, yet with a similar track with regard to low pressure and other surface fronts and positions. The image on the (right) depicts the European weather models determination, resulting in a similar track as the other models, but with some of the heavier snowfall being shifted toward the Appalachain/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast areas. Some of these model differences are explained, as the numerical weather model data attempts to determine whether the primary low pressure center will shift east of the southern Appalachain mountains, or others which hang onto low pressure west of the mountain range longer.

These differences and other details regarding this potent Winter Storm will largely be resolved over the next 24 to 36 hours as the storm takes shape. Stay tuned for storm track updates and more from the forecasters of SWC Forecast Center. Stay safe and stay warm!