Image: GEFS/Pivotal
January 12, 2021
❄ Global Model Ensemble Means paint a cold Central, East with a moderate, warm West with rumors of storms...
Here is a look at the mid-level pattern this time next week, January 18, 2021, from the GEFS. The key features are seen around Greenland, Hudson Bay, and western Canada. Also, pay attention to areas east of Hawaii. If you notice the orange, red, and brown colors around Geeenland and western Canada, you should see the blue and purple colors along Hudson Bay. That is the "in"famous polar vortex that we track during most winters. When we have that scenario, look for cold weather in the central and eastern United States. So what about the connection east of Hawaii? If you see blue in that locale, there is good support for an active subtropical jet. This leads to frequent storm threats. When all these features are in place during this time of year, winter should be quite prevalent in the central and eastern United States.

Image: CMCE/Pivotal
January 12, 2021
Here is a look at the Canadian ensemble, which is quite similar in makeup to that of the GEFS. We notice ridging (red) along Greenland and western Canada, with troughing (blue) along Hudson Bay. To the south, cold air is spilling into the central and eastern USA.

Image: ECMWF/Pivotal
January 12, 2021
This is the European Ensemble Mean. As its two predecessors have shown, this ensemble matches up well to our line of thinking. Ridging and troughing are in the right areas, and could lead to colder and stormier weather in the days to come. If more pronounced troughing can set up east of our 50th state(Hawaii), storm impacts will be even greater. Winter impacts will start to grow by the end of this week and continue through the rest of January.

Forecast Provided By: Meteorologist Joshua Ketchen

  • ☃️ The SWC Winter Forecast has been released for the 2021-22 Season. Our forecasters break down the details of how the upcoming Winter will play out across the United States.
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  • 🧊 As Winter Weather impacts become more frequent across America, it's important to brush up on the basics. Let's review how you can prepare yourself and your family for the worst of Old Man Winter!
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  • 🔥 As La Nina continues to control the overall pattern across the Western U.S., dry conditions are prevailing across Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. These conditions are forecasted to continue through Winter 2020/21.